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Doug Smock: After bye, business picks up for Herd

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By Doug Smock

HUNTINGTON - On the 12th week, the Marshall football team rested.

Take a deep breath. The Herd could, should be playing its two or three most compelling games of the season.

On Nov. 27, it's the grudge match with Western Kentucky, a winner-take-all fight for the Conference USA East Division title. The winner advances to the Dec. 5 championship game against the Louisiana Tech-Southern Miss winner on Nov. 28.

Win or lose, the Herd's bowl game should come against a team from the American Athletic Conference - the league consisting mostly of C-USA defectors. Whether it will be the St. Petersburg or Miami Beach bowl, that's tough to gauge.

The opponent is tougher to gauge. Houston (10-0) has the inside road to take the "Group of 5" spot" in a big-boy bowl, but still has to play Navy in a probable winner-take-all bout for that league's West Division title. A league title game (vs. Temple?) follows.

Navy can win the league and steal the G-5 spot; if not, the Midshipmen play in the Military Bowl. The pool of AAC teams is attractive no matter what - Houston, Memphis, Temple. Add South Florida, which could be picked to cross the water to St. Pete. (USF last played there in 2008, MU in 2011).

So which bowl should a Herd fan want?

Both games are in baseball stadiums. Marlins Park beats Tropicana Field by a mile.

The Miami Beach Bowl is at 2:30 p.m. on Monday, Dec. 21, while the St. Pete Bowl is at 11 a.m. on Saturday, Dec. 26. Which do you want?

You can't tell me the morning after Christmas is good for fans who want to attend. But TV execs will tell you the Saturday after Christmas is awesome - six games are set for the 26th.

Ratings for a 2:30 Monday game can't be good, even if during the holiday week. At the same slot last December, the game drew 1.32 million viewers compared to 3.27 million for the St. Pete game and 2.25 million for the Boca Raton Bowl.

So for exposure purposes, the Marshall-WKU winner should go to St. Pete. But I'd rather be back home for Christmas.

nnn

Other observations from the Herd's first 11 games:

n Marshall beat a Big Ten team and it's not the most impressive victory of the fall.

Purdue, Schmurdue. The Boilermakers are 6-28 under coach Darrell Hazell, whose seat is one of the most flammable in the nation. Near-misses against Michigan State and Northwestern only go so far.

Boiler Down!

Let's get this straight: MU's most impressive game is the 31-10 win over Southern Mississippi. Just ask Rice, victim of the 65-10 torching by the Golden Eagles last weekend. Rice is quite youthful and is now 4-6, but entered with a 15-game home winning streak.

Nick Mullens, hazed into a mediocre game in Huntington, is 93 of 313 for 1,271 yards and 15 TDs in four games since then. The defense sacked the Owls six times and has held its last five opponents under 300 total yards - including Marshall.

The Golden Eagles will play Louisiana Tech on Nov. 28 in a winner-take-all fight for the Western Division title. It's possible they could win the title and play at Marshall for the Conference USA title on Dec. 5, and it's hard to beat a good team twice in a season.

At this point, the Golden Eagles wouldn't need two interception return TDs to beat Purdue.

n I can try to sugarcoat Marshall's strength of schedule, but it would be a stretch.

Here are the hard, cold numbers: The win-loss mark of the 12 teams is 49-72. But there's one thing people forget - MU had a hand in devaluing that record. Take away the 2-8 mark the Herd inflicted and the overall mark is 47-64, a .423 mark.

No, that's not great.

Only three Herd opponents are bowl-eligible, with six eliminated. I project Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee to win six, but FIU would have to beat Western Kentucky this Saturday to finish 6-6.

Five bowl teams, seven bowl watchers. Can't sugarcoat that.

n Marshall's pass defense has helped get two quarterbacks benched.

Purdue's Austin Appleby was riding pine by Game 4. The Herd helped with Tiquan Lang's two "pick-sixes."

Old Dominion benched Shuler Bentley, who was 13 of 35 for 101 yards and two interceptions in the 27-7 loss in Huntington. Expect to see converted receiver David Washington when the Herd visits Norfolk next fall.

n Shawn Petty hasn't started a game at middle linebacker, and it isn't a big deal.

Do remember he missed the first six games, and Devontre'a Tyler has played well. But Petty makes the most startling plays, staring with a 4-yard burial of FIU's Alex Gardner on an early third-and-4.

It's easy to envision Tyler and Petty side-by-side in the "box" next season. Now if Petty could only have caught that gimme "pick-six" against FIU ...

n Marshall fans might take punting for granted. Don't.

From 2008-11, the Herd had Kase Whitehead, who averaged south of 40 yards per attempt but was a master of pinning opponents deep. Since 2012, the Herd has enjoyed the live leg of Tyler Williams.

Shoot, you can go back to Curtis Head (1999-02) and before. This program has been above average at the position the last decade-plus.

Every so often, an opponent shows how bad punting can hurt. FIU began the game with a 10-yard rugby punt, giving Marshall the ball at the Panthers' 45-yard line. FIU's second punt went 34 yards, and Deandre Reaves returned it 13 yards to the Panthers' 32.

Last season in the C-USA championship game, Louisiana Tech's Logan McPherson averaged 30.1 yards in his 10 punts, with a long of 39. My cats cough up hairballs with better trajectory than he could manage.

n If MU can legally do it, it should compile an MU-vs.-FIU/FAU video and send it to south Florida prospects. Maybe a copy to FAU coach Charlie Partridge for Christmas.

At least FAU has given the Herd three credible games. After one quarter Saturday, chilled FIU players just wanted to go home.

n I have long conceded my prediction that WKU will lose two league games by the time Marshall comes calling on Nov. 27. And the Hilltoppers have avoided that despite losing top back Leon Allen for the season and having tight end Tyler Higbee out with a knee sprain.

But the Hilltoppers' defense has risen to the middle of the pack in C-USA, even fourth in points against (26.5). Brandon Doughty has thrown for 3,590 yards and 34 TDs, and could sneak onto my Heisman Trophy ballot as a "maverick" No. 3 pick.

But Doughty will have to earn it against the best Marshall defense since 1999, a unit that should be flaming mad after giving up 49 first-half points in last year's game.

With that, see you Nov. 27.


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