THIS IS the first and last time, I hope, I ever combine an open-date column with a season preview. With Marshall not opening until Sept. 10, I have been bouncing off the walls of the Edwards Stadium pressbox.
I have struggled with a format for this, because preseason rankings and team predictions have developed such a sameness.
Take Conference USA. In the East Division, you have Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky and Marshall in some order at the top, Florida Atlantic, Florida International and Old Dominion in the middle and Charlotte in the bottom.
In the West Division, the universal pecking order is Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Texas-El Paso, Texas-San Antonio and North Texas.
Marshall's season has "The Script," all but set in the concrete of 25-year-old Edwards Stadium. The Thundering Herd loses to Louisville at home, at Pittsburgh and at Southern Miss, but conquers MTSU and WKU because this team plays out of its mind at home.
That mark is 30-7 in the Doc Holliday era, 19-1 since 2013, when C-USA was forced to shuffle its membership deck. That'll work.
So "The Script" would give Marshall a 7-1 league record and a tiebreaker advantage over MTSU and WKU, and therefore a division championship and probably another trip to Hattiesburg. Easy to predict, isn't it?
Well, neither life nor college football follow "The Script." Something will go kerflooey, such as UTEP or FIU mounting an expected challenge.
As for the Herd, I'll throw a twist into preseason ponderings. Here, I present games that could trash "The Script," from least to most likely. Odds are presented for entertainment purposes only.
And awayyyy we go:
Morgan State (predicted win), Sept 10: Get serious. The Bears have a interim coach in Fred T. Farrier, appointed after predecessor Lee Hull took a job with the Indianapolis Colts' staff.
The Bears have a graduate transfer quarterback, Chris Andrews from Wagner, and a potent receiver in Thomas Martin. Martin is coming back from academic ineligibility.
The Bears won the 2014 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference championship, but isn't expected to threaten this year. And they shouldn't threaten the Herd, whose players are already aching to hit somebody in another jersey. Odds against MU losing: 25,000-1.
Charlotte (win), Oct. 22: The 49ers are trying to straighten out their quarterback morass with junior-college transfer and former Miami player Kevin Olsen, brother of Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen.
Kevin Olsen left Miami in September 2014 after multiple suspensions, and was thrown off the team at Towson. His career rehab came in the California juco ranks.
Paired with running back Khalif Phillips, the 49ers have something to work with, but the defense remains the stronger unit. Not that it will matter. Odds against MU losing: 150-1.
At North Texas (win), Oct. 8: God bless Seth Littrell, for he has to engineer a monumental culture change in Denton. Despite its location in talent-rich Texas and a new stadium, the Not-So-Mean Green is 3-13 in league play the last two years.
That does not count the 66-7 loss to Portland State last year, after which coach Dan McCarney was fired before the postgame press conference. That's the gold standard for major-college ignominy.
Alabama transfer Alec Morris will run Littrell's spread offense and NT has a solid secondary. The offensive line is a major concern, punctuated by an aborted move of a blocker to center. Bad, bad sign. Odds against MU losing: 149-1.
At Old Dominion (win), Nov. 2: Bobby Wilder's energy and optimism are infectious, and I hope ODU's administration has patience with him. He feels insulted by the Monarchs being picked sixth by a league media poll, but that team has to prove something.
That starts with the defense, which has been rung up for an average 38 points in 2014 and nearly 36 in 2015. The Monarchs think they have a first-team defensive line that can hang with anybody, but that begs the question: Do they have to play every snap? If so, that's not good.
David Washington is likely to begin as the No. 1 QB, with Shuler Bentley backing him up. Zach Pascal caught 55 passes in the Monarchs' last seven games, after just three against the Herd. Odds against MU losing: 15-1.
Louisville (loss), Sept. 24: Expect a full house, with Herd fans "striping" Edwards Stadium and the Cardinals bringing a decent following. With an 8 p.m. start, the joint will be jumpin'.
The Cardinals will be tested by this "sandwich game," planted between Atlantic Coast Conference slugfests against Florida State and Clemson. But with QB Lamar Jackson eyeing a breakout season and a highly regarded linebacker corps, this is a tough, tough game. Odds against MU winning: 10-1.
At Pitt (loss), Oct. 1: Louisville is better, but will have a tough time winning the Atlantic Coast Conference's Really Good Division with FSU and Clemson in the way. Pitt has a better chance of winning the ACC's Really Mediocre Division.
(No, I can't keep the nonsensical Atlantic and Coastal divisions straight. Not making much of an effort, either.)
When your offensive line features one preseason All-ACC guard and a tackle named Bisnowaty, you are ready to smash a mouth or two. The Herd's D-line rotation gets its biggest test.
Earlier this month, Pitt announced it had sold 53,775 season tickets and wasn't done yet. The catch: Penn State fans own a chunk of those, so don't expect an overflow crowd at Heinz Field. Odds against MU winning: 7-1.
FAU (win), Oct. 15: I hesitate on putting the Owls here because they've been a pain in the neck in three losses to the Herd. The Owls treated this game like the Super Bowl last year in Boca Raton, and coaches Charlie Partridge and Doc Holliday aren't the best of friends.
Jason "I'm not Jeff" Driskel is the starting quarterback. DE Trey Hendrickson is being pumped up as a possible defensive player of the year, but MU made him almost invisible a year ago. Dalton Schomp is one of the best punters in the land. He may be needed often. Odds against MU losing: 5-1.
At FIU (win), Nov. 19: Don't try to tell me the Panthers "narrowly" missed a bowl bid in 2015. When you enter the last two games 5-5 and lose by a combined 115-7 to Marshall and WKU, there's nothing narrow about it.
Still, MU has to keep one eye open in this one. Alex McGough is no longer a freshman; he's a third-year starter. Alex Gardner can run or catch out of the backfield and tight end Jonnu Smith is a stud.
A new defensive coordinator is on board to help that unit, which was riddled at times. The program's biggest opponent, though, is underachievement. Odds against MU losing: 4-1
At Southern Miss (loss), Oct. 29: The conventional wisdom says the Herd's five-year ownership of the Golden Eagles will be in jeopardy from the moment Nick Mullens hits the field.
Not so fast. Marshall played its best game against the Eagles last year, forcing Mullens to throw 58 passes to get his 314 yards. He also was sacked four times, with a fumble leading to an MU touchdown. The Eagles were blanked for the last 41:55.
Southern Miss has had a coaching change, but reports call the transition to Jay Hopson smooth. Mullens has two top receivers back after lengthy absences, with Ito Smith still in the backfield. Add in a continually improving defense and a revived buzz in Hattiesburg, and you've got a tall task.
For some quick answers, check out the Eagles at Kentucky this Saturday. Odds against MU winning: 7-2.
Akron (win), Sept. 17: I cannot stress how important this game is. It's the true opener, Marshall needs to beat any Mid-American Conference team that gets in its way and the Herd does not want to face a possible 1-3 start.
And this isn't a bad bunch of Zips. The major concern is the offensive line, which lost all its starters. Thomas Woodson is back at quarterback and the Zips added Warren Ball, a 6-foot-1, 232-pound graduate transfer from Ohio State.
Defensively, the Zips were 23rd in the nation in points against (21.5) and 15th in yards yielded (331.5), but lost all its linebackers and other key starters. Odds against MU losing: 3-1.
MTSU (win), Nov. 12: In last year's game at Murfreesboro, the score was 17-all at the end of regulation. Fat chance that will happen this time.
Brent Stockstill and Richie James make up C-USA's best pitch-and-catch duo, and former Mississippi runner I'Tavius Mathers could be dangerous in the backfield.
That's one reason this could be a scorefest. This is another: The defense lost much of its back seven, including safety Kevin Byard, and has been plagued by big plays even when experienced. Odds against a Marshall loss: 3-2
WKU (win), Nov. 26: Brandon Doughty is gone, but successor Mike White will throw to Taywan Taylor, one of the program's most accomplished receivers. The backfield is loaded with Anthony Wales, D'Andre Ferby and Leon Allen, granted another year after a gruesome injury last September.
The defense lost middle linebacker Nick Holt, the front four and two cornerbacks. The Hilltoppers brought in two graduate transfers from Louisville, but will it be enough?
Check out WKU's opener Thursday against Rice for an early scouting report. Odds against a Marshall loss: Even.
Contact Doug Smock at 304-348-5130 or dougsmock@wvgazettemail.com. Follow him on Twitter @dougsmock and read his blog at http://blogs.wvgazettemail.com/dougsmock/.