PITTSBURGH - In some strange way, Marshall's non-conference season loosely followed the preseason script, or at least the one stuck in my head all August.
The Thundering Herd kills Morgan State, gets buried by Louisville and competes with Pittsburgh. Indeed, the Herd pulled to within three points of the Panthers in the fourth quarter Saturday, though it couldn't get the ball back and lost 43-27.
So the outlier remains Marshall's 65-38 loss to Akron. From a standings perspective, it's the "gift" that keeps on giving - the Thundering Herd must go 5-3 in Conference USA play to become bowl eligible.
If the Herd cannot do that, it deserves to stay home. But the longer you ponder potential heartbreakers against Southern Mississippi, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, the more you realize MU can't waste a week of C-USA play.
The league season begins this Saturday with a trip to North Texas. Kickoff in Denton, roughly 35 miles north of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, is at 7 p.m.
Marshall's goal of a conference championship remains intact, and would have been no matter what. Should the Herd win its division, it wouldn't be the first to do so after a sluggish non-conference start.
One example is the 2013 Herd, which suffered excruciating losses at Ohio and Virginia Tech before winning the C-USA East. Rice, the league winner, was raked over by Texas A&M and Houston.
Western Kentucky, which toyed with the league last year, still lost to Indiana and was pummeled by Louisiana State. Central Florida, the 2007 champ, lost 64-12 to South Florida.
That's the history. Now to the present: What can we apply from Marshall's three-game losing streak to the next eight games?
A few guesses:
n Marshall's third-place selection in the C-USA preseason poll is about right.
WKU nearly knocked off Vanderbilt, missing a late two-point conversion. We'll learn a lot more about the Hilltoppers this week, as they play at Louisiana Tech.
Preseason favorite Middle Tennessee lost handily to Vanderbilt and has defeated Louisiana Tech. The Blue Raiders spent Saturday in Denton, solidly defeating North Texas 30-13.
n MU's pass defense has been abhorrent.
The starting quarterbacks for Akron, Louisville and Pitt combined to go 62 of 99 for 1,076 yards with 11 touchdowns and only one interception.
That computes to a 188.6 NCAA passer rating, which would rank fourth in the FBS. Yikes!
One hopes that cornerback Chris Jackson survives his hard-knocks education and thrives sooner or later. For now, he's a freshman carrying a life-sized target around the Herd secondary, drawing three automatic-first-down flags at Pitt.
But before you heap all the blame on No. 3 or the coverage scheme, consider the pass rush - if you remember one. The Herd was sackless Saturday, and has only five sacks in the last three weeks.
Get to the QB and the secondary always looks better.
n No matter who gets the carries, Marshall is going to run some C-USA teams into the ground.
To me, the most encouraging item about the Pitt game was the 97 yards rushing in the second half. The 104 total was a season high against the Panthers.
Yes, you can say the yards come easier when you're down 27-0, but the Panthers defense wasn't able to impose its will as it did before halftime.
Anthony Anderson asserted himself, rushing for 56 yards on 13 carries. When he figures out he runs better than he dances, he'll be dangerous. Keion Davis ran for 68 yards on 12 carries, with a long of 16.
You can expect more breakaway runs against defenses lacking Pitt's pedigree. MU's competition for carries remains open, but I don't see the Herd lacking a ground game against the next three opponents - North Texas, Florida Atlantic and Charlotte.
And if you run well, everything else falls into place.
n Willie Johnson's injury is going to really, really hurt.
Michael Clark is the real deal at "X" and slot receiver Josh Knight also is headed for a big season, but the speedy Johnson was emerging as a dangerous complement to the first-stringers.
Johnson also was going to be a big-time kickoff returner, it says here. I'm not sure if the Herd has anybody else capable of a coast-to-coast, Deandre Reaves-type of runback that changes games.
You may check out my blog item on the NCAA rule for medical redshirting, but I believe Johnson will get another year for his trouble.
n Running on third-and-10 is not an automatically bad play call.
Can't resist the fun of pointing out that Davis' 16-yard run came on that down and distance, and came on a critical drive. I thought Marshall quarterback Chase Litton may have executed a run-pass option, but he said that was not the case.
"Nah, coach [Bill] Legg called that," Litton said. "We've been running a certain formation in pass protection all game, and he ran that same formation to a run. That's what struck for us."
Every so often, the play caller looks smart.
n Rough starts by the defense are nothing new under coordinator Chuck Heater - and neither is the oft-successful adjustment.
That run defense looked as much baffled as it was overpowered in the first half, as the misdirection-minded Panthers ran for 202 yards on 27 carries. After halftime, the Panthers managed only 50 yards on 14 carries, with no sacks to skew those numbers.
(It must be pointed out the Herd defense played just 4 minutes, 50 seconds in the third quarter. Show me a rested defense and I'll usually show you an intelligent defense.)
I recall several times the Herd goes on defense first, gives up a run-heavy score and toughens up afterward. But the 2014 C-USA champions could get by with it; this Marshall team cannot.
With that, bring on the Conference USA season.