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Doug Smock: D'Antoni, Marshall basketball playing the percentages when it comes to analytics

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ACTUALLY, I had heard Dan D'Antoni say it before: The "post-up" is the worst shot in basketball. Kept that in the back of my mind for later.

That "later" came up last week, when he became a hero among analytics nerds and college basketball rebels alike. After his Marshall team lost 112-106 to Pittsburgh, he unloaded the numbers behind his madness, that "organized chaos" style of offense.

A quick recap: In his folksy southern West Virginian manner, he recited how many points are scored per possessions in certain situations. He noted that these analytics come from NBA games, but said they apply to the college game, too.

He said the most effective shot is the"clean" layup, "not one that's highly contested," scoring 1.8 points per attempt. You want two points every time, but you may get hacked from behind in desperation and miss free throws, or you may flat-out choke on the shot or turn it over.

Or you may get a three-point play.

Next best is getting to the free-throw line, where you're usually shooting two. At 1.5 points per possession, that's shooting 75 percent.

College teams shoot lower on average, sometimes way lower. But D'Antoni's Marshall teams have been refreshingly efficient from the line, hitting 69.3 percent last season and 77.0 percent so far this campaign.

Isn't that something? Not so long ago, Ryan Taylor's 61.8 percent would be close to the team average.

After that, he cited the next-best shot as the 3-pointer from the corner, at 1.27. After that, "any other 3."

That gets interesting. Thinking about Marshall's offense these days, the Herd is at its deadliest when Austin Loop or somebody gets the ball alone in the corner. If the rhythm is there, I can almost write down "3" in my play-by-play notes before the shot is released.

But I also think, what is 1.27 divided by 3? That's 42.3 percent, and that's a really good clip.

Marshall shoots 38.2 percent, and Charlotte leads Conference USA at 39.2 percent, with Rice at 38.9 percent. In the NCAA rankings as of Friday, Rice was 30th in the nation at an even 39 percent.

Six C-USA individuals with enough attempts top 42.3 percent. But those include MU's Loop and Browning, and shooting skill is part of D'Antoni's grand design. Radical concept, isn't it?

Do keep in mind that college players don't shoot as well, on average, as the NBA guys. But college "bigs" don't convert their possessions into baskets as often, either.

Which leads to D'Antoni's theory behind the guarded "post-up," which he calls the worst shot in basketball. He said that play scores just 0.78 points per attempt, the most inefficient situation in the game.

Ol' Charles Barkley, that round mound of the casino, will disagree till the day he dies, but "girly basketball" - his description of 3-point-oriented offenses - is now winning championship rings.

I'm on board. From years of covering basketball in the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA, I've learned one thing about big men: There aren't many of them.

There aren't many I'd trust with the ball, anyway. Last season, 6-foot-11 Adrian Diaz was named second-team All-C-USA, and he was pretty good. He went 8 of 11 from the floor against Marshall in a losing cause, and he showed decent footwork and a nice little shot.

Also honored was Chris Cokely of Alabama-Birmingham, with teammate William Lee a third-teamer. At 6-8 and 6-9, they're still around to form a solid front line.

But when you look over the years at the all-conference teams, which are selected regardless of position, and you will find very few "bigs." C-USA has long been considered a guard-oriented league.

Why? It's tough to find a player who is legitimately taller than 6-8 (many heights are fudged an inch or two). Most of the biggest players are unpolished, to be diplomatic. OK, they're stiffs.

Many come out of high school or junior college undeveloped, skill-wise. Shoot, the currently injured Terrence Thompson came to Marshall that way, and he's only 6-7. Remember, he played only 42 minutes in MU's first 10 games last year while learning how to shoot a 10-footer.

Many bigs catch the ball down low and seem to hesitate while trying to figure out the next move against their defender. Most lower the ball before jumping or, worse yet, dribble once or twice. At that point, a guard doubles down and seizes the ball. Drives me nuts.

Michael Kessens, the 6-9 Swiss native trying to replace Diaz at FIU, leads that team in turnovers. That should not happen unless you have two point guards splitting time - they possess the ball most of the time, you know.

And when the big guy avoids all that and gets a decent shot, he might be allergic to using the glass and those contested 3-foot shots go 2 1/2 feet. Or he is fouled and bricks both free throws. The defense wins.

Play close attention, and you may find centers scoring most of their baskets by getting open on well-designed plays for layups and dunks. There is the good ol' stickback, too.

But going one-on-one in the post in that classic, barely watchable style? You might be surprised how ineffective that is.

D'Antoni isn't.

Contact Doug Smock at 304-348-5130 or dougsmock@wvgazettemail.com. Follow him on Twitter @dougsmock and read his blog at http://blogs.wvgazettemail.com/dougsmock/.


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