One of the most maddening topics for sports writers to cover is recruiting.
Think you have a handle on what's happening? Think again. You don't. It changes. Sometimes by the minute.
Take Wednesday night for instance. After covering Dana Holgorsen's presser on WVU's latest class, I scoured the recruiting sites to report the class's ranking. Scout.com went from No. 52 to No. 53 to, Thursday morning, No. 56. 247 Sports had it at No. 55 to No. 56 to, Thursday morning, No. 53. And - the most bizarre - Rivals had it No. 93 then No. 47 (there's a swing for you) to, Thursday morning, No. 51.
Of course, none of that prompts cheers and toasts if you're a Mountaineer fan. Yet neither Florida transfer Will Grier, a terrific quarterback, nor Tennessee transfer Ray Raulerson, an offensive lineman, is mixed in there, so there's that.
It's even maddening, apparently, to Holgorsen, who went on a rant Wednesday.
"Let's talk about the 2012 recruiting class," he said. "It was ranked, what, 52nd, 55th? I mean, it was like [raspberry noise]. And how many NFL guys did we have? Twelve?
"They re-ranked it and it was first in the Big 12. So who cares what it ranks on paper and what you think right now and what the experts and media and recruiting sites think?"
The problem with the rant is WVU's 2012 class, ranked No. 50 by Rivals, was actually re-ranked No. 6 in the league by ESPN.com. What he meant to say was the site re-ranked the 2013 Mountaineer class and placed it No. 1 within the league. That class, however, was nationally ranked No. 27 by Rivals, No. 28 by Scout and No. 31 by 247Sports to start.
Yet set that aside. Let's look at the big picture. The average national ranking for WVU over the past four years has been No. 40.5 by Rivals, No. 41.25 by 247Sports and No. 40.5 by Scout. The best ranking in that span was No. 30 in 2015 by Scout. The worst was Wednesday's class at No. 56 (at least as of Thursday afternoon) by 247. All three services had the Mountaineers' 2017 class No. 8 among Big 12 teams.
What's happening? Well, there are theories. Pitt and Penn State are back, some say, and making it difficult for WVU in Pennsylvania. There are thoughts that Cincinnati and Kentucky are getting more of the tier-two players from Ohio the Mountaineers used to get. And the pipeline into Florida has slowed with Jimbo Fisher at Florida State, Charlie Strong at South Florida and Mark Richt at Miami, along with Butch Davis at Florida International, Jim McElwain at Florida and even Lane Kiffin at Florida Atlantic.
Expect that to really continue now that Mountaineer assistant JaJuan Seider, who specialized in the state, is taking a powder.
Holgorsen addressed the Sunshine State on Wednesday.
"I mean, we brought guys in," he said. "Florida guys have a lot of options, right?"
In-state, WVU recovered to get South Charleston's Derrek Pitts, but missed on Huntington's Billy Ross (North Carolina), Spring Valley's Riley Locklear (Tennessee), Point Pleasant's Seth Stewart (LSU) and Capital's Dorian Etheridge (Louisville). That has to be a concern for Mountaineer fans.
But let's take a beat here. Let's look at it from another angle.
First, WVU had a good season last year. The Mountaineers won 10 games and athletic director Shane Lyons was moved enough to extend Holgorsen's contract. The coach has something to sell this go-round.
And, hey, Mountaineer fans: Want something to feel good about? Take a look at the upcoming Super Bowl. You know how WVU signed three-star players almost across the board this year?
Well, Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan was a three-star kid from William Penn Charter in Pennsylvania. Ran the triple option in high school.
In fact, according to CBS Sports, 61 percent of the projected Super Bowl starters weren't rated in the Top 500 of their recruiting class. The Falcons' starters had an average of 2.818 stars. (There's one five-star player in Julio Jones. There are three four-star players in Jake Matthews, Devonta Freeman and Keanu Neal.) The New England Patriots' starters averaged 2.913 stars. (Martellus Bennett and Malcom Brown were five-star players. LeGarrette Blount, Dont'a Hightower and Cyrus Jones were four-star players.) WVU's average player rating for 2017? It's 2.95, according to Scout.
Also, college teams don't have to hit on all 85 scholarship players. Yes, you increase your odds of hitting on enough to win if your recruits average four stars (see Alabama's class), but there can be swings and misses.
"We'd sign 20 kids," said former WVU head coach Don Nehlen on Thursday. "If we had 12 of those good enough to win with we were in pretty daggone good shape. The other eight, though, had to be high-character kids to help within the program."
"Obviously, you want to hit on all of them," said WVU defensive coordinator Tony Gibson on Wednesday. "The reality, though, is if you can get 25 all-conference players in there you're in good shape."
Gibson admits "nobody has this down to a science" and pointed to ex-WVU standout Steve Slaton, who had few offers yet starred, and to five-star Mountaineer recruit Jason Gwaltney, whose football career fizzled.
"It's really all about development," Gibson said. "At WVU you can go back to Coach Nehlen's days. They did a good job and I think we've done a good job."
The defensive coordinator said, however, there have been changes.
"You need about 10 to 20 really, really good players," he said. "You have to hit on 30 - with no injuries - and backups. On defense you need about 15, but you can't hide the others the way you used to. That's tougher in the Big 12.
"On offense, you also need 15 to 20. And the one you better hit on is quarterback. I don't care if it's high school, college or the NFL, you better hit there."
WVU apparently has hit there with Grier. (The school's deputy athletic director, Keli Cunningham, told the Gazette-Mail on Wednesday that Grier's early-season eligibility will be determined in the summer. She gave no projected date.)
Grier's proficiency, however, is yet to be determined - as is the Mountaineers' final roster. Holgorsen said more signees might be in the offing.
Which will further twist that maddening Rubik's Cube known as recruiting.
Contact Mitch Vingle at 304-348-4827 or mitchvingle@wvgazettemail.com. Follow him on Twitter @MitchVingle.