Before a week of vacation, I wrote of the Big 12's woes following the most recent NFL draft.
Yet there was another entity that suffered a blow because of the draft's outcome.
That would be the college bowl system.
As you might know, ex-Stanford back Christian McCaffrey decided to skip his final college game, the Cardinal's Sun Bowl, to work on improving his draft status. LSU's Leonard Fournette, hindered with an ankle sprain, decided not to participate in the Citrus Bowl, although he could have pushed through.
You know the rest of the story. The NFL shrugged at those criticizing the decisions to skip. The Jacksonville Jaguars selected Fournette with the fourth overall pick. The Carolina Panthers took McCaffrey with the eighth overall pick.
Meanwhile, Michigan's Jake Butt decided to play in the Orange Bowl. The tight end suffered a major injury and slid to the top of the fifth round before the Denver Broncos selected him. Luckily, the player had a "loss of value" insurance policy, but it's not clear how much he'll actually collect. ESPN's Darren Rovell said the number is $543,000, but players have had difficulty in the past with such policies and Butt himself said the report is "really not completely accurate."
The point is, Butt probably lost money playing in the Orange Bowl. Probably a boatload. The estimate was $2.5 million. And the same situation also befell Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith, who lost an estimated $15-18.5 million in 2016 before being picked by Dallas.
So do I expect more and more players to skip non-College Football Playoff games? Yes. Of course. Forbes called the decisions of McCaffrey and Fournette to sit out "profit maximizing behavior."
"In economics parlance," said the magazine, "the marginal benefit from them playing [was] far less than the potential marginal cost."
The article concluded by suggesting those criticizing sitting out to "reassess what you might do in their shoes. Profit maximizing behavior is about financial self-survival, and in light of the many financial restrictions imposed on student-athletes to begin with, a reasonable person certainly cannot begrudge McCaffrey's and Fournette's decisions to look out for their future financial income stream."
While pondering the situation, however, I began wondering how just far this might go. Obviously, the two backs made the right call. Skipping the bowls mattered not to NFL teams because the players had proven themselves.
Yet that's where this gets sticky. Players have to be first-round locks in my mind to consider skipping bowls. See, while you can drop because of injury, you can also improve your stock, albeit probably marginally.
But let's say all is good. Let's say you're healthy. Let's say you've had a great season. Let's say a positive evaluation of you is spot on.
And let's say you're a quarterback.
Uh oh. What then? Do you - the team's linchpin - pull out?
Let's face it, that position is the most coveted by NFL teams. And it's bound to happen. But can you imagine the hubbub then? And what if it happens to YOUR team?
Let's say WVU quarterback Will Grier is good to go for the upcoming Mountaineer season and kicks tail. Can you imagine the uproar in the Mountain State if he chose to sit out, say, the Cotton Bowl? (Understand, by the way, I have no inside information here. Also, I have no earthly idea how Grier will perform this coming season. This is purely speculative.)
You get the drift. Knowing now how NFL teams feel about quarterbacks, let's say you're a potential No. 1 pick, a la Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford or even Sam Bradford. Despite being the most protected player on the field by the NCAA rules committee would you now have second thoughts about playing in a bowl?
Sure. And it's understandable. It's been reported the median value of a total contract for a top five pick in 2016 was $25.9 million. The median signing bonus money was $17 million. For the entire first round the numbers were $11 million and $6.2 million.
That's why I'm convinced we'll see 15 to 20 players a season skipping bowls in the near future. That's why I'm convinced quarterbacks will soon do so as well.
And, considering the life-changing money now on the table, that's why I'm convinced I'll completely understand well-informed decisions.