MORGANTOWN - By the end of today, the proverbial skies could look brighter for WVU's football team.
The Mountaineers are favored to defeat Texas Tech at home. A victory could move them within two steps of qualifying for a bowl.
There have been murmurs around Morgantown, though, surrounding one question. Could WVU be moving to within just one step today?
Suggestions have been made that a 5-7 Mountaineer team could qualify for a bowl since there are now so many of the games. According to Christopher Radford of the NCAA, there are 80 openings for teams, not counting the national championship, with only 127 in FBS play. And don't forget: WVU fans travel well, especially if the bowl is within driving distance.
Before the start of the day, according to the Big 12's Bob Burda, 40 schools had already qualified for a bowl berth. Thirteen schools have already been ruled out based on a 6-6 or better rule. Seventy-five teams can still make the grade.
But can West Virginia make that grade with even more stumbles and a final 5-7 mark? Might the market end up calling for the Mountaineers?
The simple answer is no. Not unless lighting strikes occur that Thor and Zeus would envy. Not this season. Yet spread the word: A 5-7 team is coming to your bowl neighborhood in the very near future. Bank on it.
Here's the deal: Last year there were 38 bowls, not counting the College Football Playoff championship, meaning there were 76 bowl slots. Still, there weren't enough openings for a handful of teams. Teams like Middle Tennessee and Temple were left in the cold. (The Owls have made sure that won't be the case this season.)
The rule of thumb? According to the NCAA, "An eligible team is defined as one that has won a number of games against Football Bowl Subdivision [FBS] opponents that is equal to or greater than the number of its overall losses [e.g., a record of 6-6, or better]."
But there are exceptions to the rule. Many. And they are worked through in priority order.
Each year, a FBS team may count one victory against a Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) opponent that has met 90 percent of the permissible maximum of grants-in-aid for that necessary sixth win. At this point it looks like WVU would have to count the FCS win over Liberty.
If a conference champion is contractually scheduled to participate in a bowl game, but doesn't meet the record critieria, it is still in. If a team qualifies for the league championship, but loses and falls under .500, it's still all good. (Those exceptions came on the heels of the 2011 UCLA mess. The Bruins made the Pac-12 championship after winning the South Division. They were beaten by Oregon, then played in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl and lost to Illinois, finishing 6-8.)
Then there are the really desperate measures. If there are no other qualifying teams, a bowl can take one that has a win against a FCS team that doesn't meet the grants-in-aid standards. If there's none of those, a bowl can take one that has two FCS wins. If you're a team that played Hawaii and given an extra game on the mainland, you can go at 6-7. (Ditto if you're Hawaii.)
No? Well then if you're a team that's in your final year of reclassification from FCS and have six wins, then you're in.
And finally, if you have a minimum of five wins and a maximum of seven losses but achieved a top-five Academic Progress Rate FBS score, you can go.
The bad news for WVU is its latest APR was 942. That's not close to Stanford, which scored a 995, or Duke or teams from schools of that ilk.
The lightning strike would be if all the contingencies don't produce enough teams. Then the shorted bowl would work with the NCAA to find a team.
New rules will be issued for 2016 and beyond. But in that future, expect a free-for-all in regard to bowls. You know how little kids are getting awards for simply participating? We're headed toward that in major-college football.
"The NCAA can't cap the number of bowls," Burda said. "It was challenged in court, which said you can't restrict the number. There once was a waiting period put in place, but some cities said, 'Why do we have to wait? We have a deal in place between interested parties and are ready to go.' It was considered unfair restraint of trade."
So for 2016 there have been bowls proposed from nearby sites like Austin, Texas, and Charleston, South Carolina, to the far-flung of Melbourne, Dubai, Ireland and Toronto.
It will not stop. Bowl games make money, although not enough gets to the involved schools.
Consider that there were six to 11 bowl games between 1955 and 1975. The numbers went from 11 to 18 from 1975 to 1995. During the BCS era, the numbers went from 20 to 35.
Now here we are wondering if a possible 5-7 WVU team will make the grade.
The answer is not this year.
But in the coming years, yes, that will be possible.
Without question.